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Iron and steel industry this year is expected to significantly improve the benefits - Monkey years t

Publisher:l 英迈思
Release time: 2013-11-29

  Lunar year monkey arrived, the price of steel as if the monk off the "hum that microphone microphone 吽 吽" mantra after the Sun Da-sheng, the kind of relief, the feeling of sky and sky. Scientific experiments show that the common ancestor of human apes and humans is primitive Australopithecus, human and apes in the chimpanzee gene similarity reached 98.77%. Therefore, the monkey in the eyes of the people has been naughty cute and clever animals, and even in a certain environment to form a "monkey culture" phenomenon. And Mr. Mao Zedong's "golden monkey to rise a thousand sticks, Yu Yu clarified Miles Egypt." The famous sentence, but also the Sun Da-sheng's determination, sharp, bold, to an unprecedented height. As a result, the extension of the performance of China's steel market after years, it seems that the declaration, bearish the iron and steel industry as singing the same as the Chinese economy, destined not willing to. Based on the natural "monkey" characteristics, especially for the monkey steel city to do three basic judgments.

 

  First, the domestic and international economic environment judged

 

  (I) the international economic environment

  As the world economic recovery process is slow, and the impact of geopolitics, the world's leading institutions have made the latest forecast of the world economy. Among them, the OECD predicts that global GDP growth will be 3.3% in 2016 and 3.6% in 2017; the World Bank will cut its growth forecast for 2016 to 2.9% in a row; the United Nations expects the world economy to grow in 2016 and 2017 2.9% and 3.2%; Moody's expected world economic growth of 2.6% in 2016; Goldman Sachs forecast the most optimistic that this year's global economic growth will exceed last year, from last year's 3.2% to 3.6%. Goldman Sachs believes that this year the world economic situation will appear four major characteristics: First, the world economic growth engine is moving from emerging countries to developed countries; Second, the global monetary policy differentiation intensified, Europe and Japan QE policy outlook is not optimistic; Third, international capital flows Frequent disorder, China's capital outflow signs have been initially appeared; four is the depth of the adjustment of the global economic risk concentrated exposure.

 

  The most noteworthy is that the International Monetary Fund, although the 2016 world economic growth forecast to 3.2%, is also a cautious optimism. But president Lagarde has said that the US economic growth trend will be "disappointing" in 2016 due to the US rate hike and the slowdown in economic growth in some developing countries.

 

  The most noteworthy is that the International Monetary Fund, although the 2016 world economic growth forecast to 3.2%, is also a cautious optimism. But president Lagarde has said that the US economic growth trend will be "disappointing" in 2016 due to the US rate Hike and the slowdown in economic growth in some developing countries.

 

  (2) the domestic economic environment

  In recent years, China's economic growth slowed, the world's economic organizations and advisory research institutions have lowered China's economic growth this year: Barclays forecast that China's economy will slow to 6%; UBS forecast growth of 6.2%; Moody's Forecasting growth of 6.5% and forecast China's GDP growth in the next few years to 6% level continued to decline; IMF forecast growth of 6.5% (recently cut in the world economic growth at the same time, up 0.2 percentage points in China. Deutsche Bank also raised China's second quarter GDP Growth is expected to 7.0%.); The World Bank predicts that China's economy will grow by 6.7% in 2016, although this is the most optimistic figure in all forecasts. But it is noteworthy that the United States, Japan and other high-income countries, as well as most of the euro area will enter a stage of restorative growth, clearly shows the world economic recovery process slightly accelerated trend.

 

  President Xi Jinping clearly stated in the "CPC Central Committee's proposal on the formulation of the thirteenth five-year plan for national economic and social development" that the bottom line of the economic growth from 2016 to 2020 is more than 6.5%. To this end, the two sessions this year formally established "thirteen" period economic growth rate remained at 6.5% or more, and "thirteen five" start of the year's economic growth in the range of 6.5% -7%.

 

  For this comprehensive study, China's economic growth in 2016 or about 6.7%. China's steel industry will continue in the cyclical economic downturn in the environment.

 

  Second, the domestic and international steel demand judgment

 

  (A) the overall situation of the steel industry

  Overall, the global steel supply situation in 2016 is difficult to improve, the iron and steel industry chain related business production and management is still difficult, steel prices will remain low in the hovering, steel market weak trend will continue. However, based on the steel industry layout and the breakdown of the market economy, the developed economies and their developed countries, the price of steel will remain higher than the emerging and developing economies, Asia, China, Japan and South Korea's steel prices will continue Leading the world steel prices ups and downs.

 

  1. To solve the overall excess capacity of the steel industry chain need long-term struggle

  Long-term high-growth economy, not only to enhance China's total economic output, but also cultivate and economic growth to adapt to the huge production capacity. But the legacy problem is that the faster the economy goes down, the more contradictory the excess. This is both a rule and a necessity! And to effectively resolve the whole society overcapacity problem, in our current system, mechanism, is bound to be extremely difficult, time will be quite long. Although the State Council to determine further measures to resolve the excess capacity of the steel industry, as well as the State Council "on the steel industry to resolve the excess capacity to achieve the development of the views of the difficulties", decided to 5 years and then reduce crude steel production capacity of 1-1.5 million tons. But has been out of nearly 100 million tons of production capacity to see, the effect is not ideal, and the performance of public opinion is also clearly contrary to the performance. Even in the industry concentration, but also tends to decline, seemingly reorganization of the enterprise group, in addition to single surname to surname, the basic no change in nature.

 

  It can be argued that the contradiction of the overall surplus of China's steel industry chain is difficult to be resolved in the short term, the substantial increase in the concentration of the steel industry, and its adjustment to the supply of economic development, but also need long-term struggle.

 

  2. Economic over-monetization to unit GDP consumption of steel indicators distortion

 

  First, the greater the amount of central bank money, the unit GDP consumption of steel indicators fell faster. Data show that in 1993 to 2015, 23 years of time, M2 increased by 39 times (from 3.5 trillion to 139.2 trillion, a net increase of 135.7 trillion), unit GDP steel consumption fell 58% (1377 tons / billion ). This shows that the excessive delivery of money is the main factor leading to a significant decline in the consumption of steel per unit of GDP. Because in fact, 23 years, China's steel consumption is a substantial increase of 7.1 times (from 80 million tons to more than 600 million tons), rather than 45 degrees slope decline. Thus, the unit GDP steel consumption indicators not only can not really reflect the needs of social steel, but also to cover up and mislead the relationship between supply and demand; Second, the higher the degree of economic monetization, the lower the efficiency of capital output. Central bank data show that 26 years, China M2 increased by 90 times. While the United States in the same period, only increased by 2.71 times. By 2015, China's M2 / GDP is 2.05, equivalent to more than 2 yuan leveraging 1 yuan GDP. While the United States as long as 1 US dollars, will be able to leveraging 1.5 US dollars of GDP.

 

  It is believed that the prediction of steel demand may also expand the thinking, especially in the trend of economic monetization trend more and more strong, supplemented by monetary and other correlation analysis, may allow us to study more accurate, more depth , More proactive.

 

  (B) the world steel demand

  World Steel's latest forecast: global steel demand continued to fall 0.8% to 1.488 billion tons in 2016 after 2015. By 2017, global steel demand will recover 0.4% to 14.94 billion Ton. TV Narendran, chairman of the World Steel Association's Market Research Council, said: "We expect China's steel demand to show another year of shrinking in 2016, while other major regions, including the North American Free Trade Area and the European Union, are expected to show a slow pace And steady growth; in 2017, it is expected that steel demand will increase in all markets except China, and steel demand outside China will continue to grow by 1.8% in 2016 and accelerate to 3.0% in 2017; China's steel demand fell by 4.0% in 2016 and then by 3.0% in 2017. This means that China's steel demand will be 626.1 million tons (down 15% from 2013) in 2017, accounting for 47.9 percent of world steel consumption and 41.9 percent from 44.8 percent in 2015.

 

  Obviously, the World Steel Association on this year's global steel demand forecast is more objective, but China's steel demand is too pessimistic, which is probably caused by singing the impact of China's economic atmosphere. We believe that although China's economic growth decline, but the total demand for steel will still be compatible with economic and social development. To this end, the global consumption of steel in 2016 or 1.5% decline in 2015, about 1.49 billion tons, consistent with the World Steel Association forecast. But in 2016 China's steel demand will remain stable, in the government to production capacity, protect people's livelihood, steady growth and strong measures, there may be a slight increase.

 

  (C) domestic steel demand

  Although the economic slowdown, steel supply surplus. But the future for a long period of time, China's steel demand will remain the world's most. In 2016 terms, the domestic steel demand mainly in the following areas.

 

  First, the conventional demand will remain relatively stable. China's vast territory, different geomorphology, natural disasters, the situation is complex, the country each year in the road traffic, urban maintenance, disaster relief and other aspects of steel demand is not only huge, and relatively stable. But there is no system data due to conventional requirements, so it is incalculable.

 

  Second, the main demand for steel consumption is still considerable. In 2016, although the growth rate of steel demand, such as real estate, machinery and home appliances, has declined, the absolute amount of road construction (including rail), automobile, shipbuilding and so on will continue to increase.

 

  Three is difficult to estimate the potential demand can be expected. The first is the "all the way", the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cooperation and the Yangtze River Economic Development with the implementation of the three major strategies. According to the National Development and Reform Commission said that the three major development strategies are based on traffic, infrastructure construction as the focus. Therefore, if the full release of potential, will add hundreds of millions of tons of steel demand. The forecast is that only "all the way" construction investment (including foreign construction investment) will be more than 10 trillion US dollars. Although the "area along the way", the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River economic zone strategic building is not overnight, but 2016 happens to be the implementation of the year, so fuzzy quantitative potential demand this year can still be expected;

 

  Followed by the construction of a huge city corridor. For a long time, the city to see the sea, road zipper, gas and water pipe burst and other accidents frequently, and some even pay the cost of life. To this end, last year, the State Council deployed to promote the construction of urban underground corridor. The information shows that, under reasonable circumstances, urban construction investment, the ground part and the underground part of the investment ratio should be 6: 4, or even half of the half. Urban Construction Department estimates, if the future annual construction of the national corridor more than 2,000 kilometers per year, 120 million yuan per kilometer investment, investment will reach 240 billion yuan. Only a total investment of 240 billion yuan, of which a large part of the need to convert to the purchase of various types of steel demand. If so far, China's urbanized land-based construction costs billions of tons of steel, then the next 20 years, China's urban underground corridor construction and other underground works, but also need almost the same amount of construction steel, the need for a large number of construction machinery and logistics Facilities, etc., will also produce steel demand. Needless to say, in 2016 China's urban corridor construction will certainly be substantial advance, and the formation of the next period of long-term stability of the demand for steel;

 

  Finally, environmental protection is the high demand for steel. For a long time, China's atmosphere, water and soil environmental issues become increasingly prominent, vigorously pollution control has been urgent. According to the country's 2030 climate change target forecast: only water resources protection, "water ten" investment will reach 2 trillion yuan, boosting GDP growth of about 5.7 trillion, driving the new environmental protection industry output value of about 29,000 Billion in the desertification control, the United Nations and the Chinese government is to explore the sand control PPP model, once introduced, the scale of investment will reach several trillion yuan; in soil remediation management, the industry will also attract about 10 trillion investment The Above the huge scale of environmental protection investment, is bound to pull the rise of a strong environmental protection industry, which led to a variety of high demand for steel is also amazing.

 

  It can be seen, China's steel demand potential is still huge, to quantify the steel demand in 2016 can still be expected. There is also a need for concern. If the country pursues or imposes anti-seismic steel structures, road traffic, and engineering facilities, the spring demand of Chinese steel will come.

 

  In summary: 2016 China's steel market prices can be cautiously optimistic, the apparent consumption of steel or roughly the same as last year, or even slightly increased, the initial forecast of about 683 million tons. Other major indicators are forecast: production of crude steel 788 million tons, down 2%; production of steel 770 million tons (deducted material), down 2%; imports of steel 12 million tons, down 6.1%; export steel 100 million tons About 11.01% lower; steel indirect exports of about 200 million tons; about 13 million tons of iron ore production, down 6%; imports of iron ore about 900 million tons, down about 5%. According to the first quarter of the operating situation, combined with the fundamentals of the monkey years, the main metallurgical product price range is predicted as follows.

 

  Third, the characteristics of the steel industry to determine the operation

 

  Based on the above view, further research, monkey years of iron and steel industry economic operation will be the four main features: First, excess capacity to be curbed. China to curb steel production capacity and capacity to do the work for ten years, but the actual effect is not ideal. However, it is worth looking forward to is that the central "thirteen five" resolve the excess capacity of the unprecedented determination, "seventeen departments led to the production capacity" will never "vegetarian", especially the establishment of the steel industry to resolve excess capacity and difficulties Work inter-ministerial joint meeting system, together the effect worth the wait. It is commendable that the leaders of Hebei and other provinces of iron and steel also announced the timetable to the production capacity, set up a "military order." It can be argued that in the central government accountability under unprecedented pressure, our steel industry's excess capacity will be able to be effectively remediation, to curb overcapacity will make substantial progress; Second, steel demand is basically stable. The reduction in economic growth and the elimination of excess capacity, especially the supply side of the reform, will make this year's steel supply is relatively reduced. While the government side of the supply side of the reform, will continue to force the economy and stimulate demand measures, including reducing taxes, increase money and liquidity and so on. Can firmly believe that many measures to ensure the smooth operation of the economy introduced measures, will make the demand to maintain a relatively stable, especially since the 2000 km this year, the construction of urban corridors, will certainly effectively increase the demand for steel. Therefore, this year's steel demand will be basically stable, even more than 2015, a slight increase in the "one way along the" strategy and the construction of the city corridor, the basic can make up for the decline in construction and machinery steel. Also based on this, monkey year steel demand is basically stable, or become a monkey years of steel industry one of the highlights; third is the bottom of the steel price and the average price uplift. According to the law of the market, the law of value, running trend of judgment, we believe that last year, commodities and steel prices have bottomed out success, late steel prices are bound to run at the bottom of last year. Preliminary judgment, the average price of steel this year, at least 10% higher than last year; Fourth, significant improvement in industry efficiency. Steel supply decline, steel demand is stable, the bottom of the price rise, corporate tax burden to reduce the money is loose, etc., will give enterprises a positive impact on production and management. Therefore, the monkey years of the steel industry's operating conditions will certainly be better than the sheep. Preliminary forecast, monkey industry losses of about 10 billion yuan, about 10% loss, industry efficiency is expected to significantly improve, or even turnaround.

 

  Fourth, the monkey city of the city to respond to environmental recommendations

 

  In response to the severe economic slowdown in the past few years for enterprises to open the "big prescription" numerous. However, the impact of the degree of view, the most influential iron and steel enterprises, "prescription" is "Internet +", in recent years, the steel industry is the most talked about "Internet +". As a result, the steel industry chain "+" out of hundreds of electricity business, resulting in the vast majority of the prospect of iron and steel business faces a lot of uncertainty. To this end, still adhere to the "normal heart + characteristic road" response to the proposal. Because "normal" of the "big prescription" to adapt to the world, and Deng Xiaoping "characteristics of the road" personalized, both to avoid the homogenization of the same mistakes, but also suitable for enterprises to go their own way.

 

  In the "Journey to the West": "You lug Tam, Lyrics, extended to the monkey years of China's steel industry response, and perhaps more appropriate and applicable.

 

 

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